Quebec’s strategic maple syrup reserve is approaching exhaustion, with the Quebec Maple Syrup Producers forecasting that stocks will be depleted by February. Canada accounted for more than 75% of global maple syrup production in 2025, and Quebec supplied 90% of the country’s output. The reserve, comprising three warehouses with capacity for about 218,000 barrels, provides a buffer against fluctuations in weather-dependent production.
Demand surged in 2025 as Americans accelerated purchases ahead of anticipated tariffs following President Donald Trump’s launch of a global trade war. Canadian syrup exports increased nearly 16%, compared with 9% growth in 2024, even as production declined 5%. Export growth subsequently slowed to 2.5% in the first eight months of 2026. Meanwhile, producers have expanded into markets beyond the United States: about 65% of Canadian syrup exports now go there, down from 80% two decades ago.
Although production will continue, an exhausted reserve would leave no stockpile to cushion output disruptions. Nevertheless, Simon Doré-Ouellet, the producer group’s deputy general manager, says market supplies are secure for the coming year. Replenishing the reserve will require several years, and a strong 2027 season would help. Quebec has expanded production capacity by 50% over six years, adding more than 21 million taps for collecting sap from maple trees. That expansion could support recovery, but unfavorable weather remains a risk that producers can do little to control.
